New poll: Crist, Rubio in dead heat

TAMPA - Earlier this year, Governor Charlie Crist seemed unbeatable with a 20-point lead in his bid for the U.S. Senate.

Winning looked like a cakewalk, until now. Republican opponent, Marco Rubio has surged in the polls, turning the race into a dead heat.

"When you see an incumbent governor, who was very, very popular, in the high 70s favorability, all of the sudden plummet very quickly to an upstart who doesn't have a lot of money, from South Florida, it gets people's attention." USF political analyst Susan MacManus said.

FOX 13's exclusive Rasmussen polling shows Rubio tied with Crist at 43 percent. Fourteen percent of those polled were uncommitted to either candidate.

"Rubio may be switching from being an expression of frustration, to now being viewed as a serious contender and people are going to take a little different look at him," said Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports.

Rubio's conservative views have gained traction— especially with staunch republicans, who are furious with Crist for embracing the president and his $787 billion stimulus package.

"We can spend more money on our roads and infrastructure, we can provide health care for our people. It's remarkable!" Governor Crist said in February.

Crist now says he did not endorse the stimulus bill, a turn about that analysts say, hasn't helped.

"For a lot of republicans, Crist hasn't really matched up on that. Sometimes he seems like he's a true conservative republican. Other times he looks more like a democrat," MacManus added.

A disconnect that Rubio has seized on. Analysts say it also has exposed a rift between the party establishment and its conservative base.

"If he had not demonstrated some weakness, if he had not gotten himself in trouble both with his initial hug with Barack Obama and with some comments later, Rubio wouldn't be in this position," Rasmussen said.